Classified memo to Gov. Gregoire reveals true intent behind Washington’s rush to copy California LCFS
There’s no truth to the rumor that the 5,000-mile flight from Olympia to Denmark is direct (or comfortable); but at least once Washington governor Chris Gregoire arrives at the Copenhagen climate summit this weekend, she’ll be greeted by plenty of familiar faces.
One of them will belong to the governor of California, on-hand to update conference-goers on the implementation of a first-of-its-kind Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) in his state. It’s a plan of which Gov. Gregoire is reportedly well enamored. But Washington isn’t California. And the imposition of California-style fuel mandates on Washington will not be done without exacting a heavy, prohibitive toll on consumers and motorists in the state.
To understand why that is, first you have to know a little about where each state gets its energy. In California, a plurality of the state’s oil comes from overseas – with Saudi Arabia accounting for the largest share of imports. This oil is classified as “light” and is favored under an LCFS, even though it has to travel more than 12,000 miles to get there.
Washington gets some of its oil from Saudi Arabia as well, but more than 25 percent of its total haul comes from Canada. The chart below captures the relevant percentages:

On its face, that would seem to be a good thing, right? Canadian oil is closer, cheaper, and infinitely more secure than crude from the Middle East. Amazingly, though, Saudi Arabian oil receives a better score under an LCFS than its Canadian counterpart. California gets virtually none of its oil from Canada. Now you know why its governor supports an LCFS.
But why does Washington’s? Not only would a quarter of the state’s oil supply be threatened under an LCFS, but 10 percent of the state’s gasoline – refined in Montana, but derived from Canada’s oil sands – would also be prevented from crossing the eastern border. The effect this would have on local gas and diesel prices isn’t hard to predict: less supply means higher costs, and potentially even greater dependence on foreign regimes.
And what about jobs? Refiners in Washington directly employed 2,003 workers in 2007 (latest numbers), and indirectly supported another 20,000. They paid out more than $400 million in wages. And they sent nearly that same amount to Olympia in the form of sales, excise, occupation and sundry other taxes.
The scary thing is: Gov. Gregoire knows this. And so does her new chief-of-staff. His name is Jay Manning, and back in May while serving as the state’s top environmental regulator, he penned a confidential memo to the governor – released just this week by the Washington Policy Center – that recommends a full-steam-ahead approach to enacting an LCFS through executive decree; legislature be damned.
Sure, Mr. Manning acknowledges — the move might strike some as “controversial.” But the more punitive we make our state LCFS, the better chance we have of “increas[ing] the regulated community’s interest in getting a national program in place.”
Catch that? The Washington LCFS (borrowed from California) isn’t actually about Washington at all – it’s about coercing support for a federal, nationwide fuels mandate. And according to Mr. Manning, that federal mandate is right around the corner: “We, of course, expect a national program to be established.”
Two weeks after Mr. Manning wrote that memo, Gov. Gregoire issued Executive Order 09-05 – directing her cabinet to “assess whether the California low-carbon fuel standards … would best meet Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.” Consultants were hired and public workshops were scheduled. And even though serious questions remained unanswered (“Is the policy ahead of the science?” asks one agency PowerPoint), Washington was off to the races. The governor is expected to announce what comes next in July.
In the meantime, the state’s consultants are hard at work trying to determine whether an LCFS “would best meet” Washington’s “emissions reduction targets.” If they do their job right, the answer they’ll find is that it doesn’t.
Why’s that? Because an LCFS can’t change the carbon content of oil, or gasoline, or any other fuel – that’s constant. It also can’t change the fact that more than 80 percent of transportation sector emissions come from our fuel’s combustion – not the things an LCFS seeks to restrict.
And it can’t change the fact that Canada’s abundant and affordable oil reserves are going to be developed whether Washington’s governor allows her state’s citizens to access them or not. If they don’t go to Whatcom or Skagit Counties, they’ll just be sent to Beijing instead. And according to a report published in the American Economic Journal this year, that fact alone might actually render an LCFS a net-increaser of carbon emissions.
Higher prices at the pump, expanded dependence on foreign, unstable regimes, and the potential for even greater carbon emissions in the future. An LCFS might pass as sensible energy policy in California, but it shouldn’t in Washington.
More from SecureOurFuels.org: